Race-by-race preview and tips for Muswellbrook on Monday
By Neil Evans
Track Heavy 9 and rail out 3m from 1000m to 300m into a cut/away and True the remainder
Race 1 MAIDEN HCP (1500m)
The spate of very wet tracks and tough reads continue as we kick off with the maidens over a middle distance. Ultra-honest five-year-old 6. Deific gets his chance to finally break through at his 27th start and deep into the current prep. He has placed in four of his past five runs, the latest even to the line here two starts back in a deeper race before again running home OK from a similar position at Quirindi. A new rider goes on and he drops to 4kg, the lightest weight he’s carried in a long time. He relishes rain-affected ground.
Nine races are set down for Monday at Muswellbrook.Credit: Fairfax Media
Dangers: Hard-fit 3. The Favourite Son is fifth-up off a five-week freshen and also bursting to break through. Finished well to beat all bar the winner on a very shifty track at Gunnedah and the seven-day back-up is a signal he’s worked well since. Keep safe 9. Oojah Capow, who can peak second-up on a significant weight drop, while 10. Sunset Panorama gets the blinkers back on carrying a postage stamp weight fourth-up after a fair closing effort last time when hard in the market. Big gap to the rest headed by 7. I Am Dutch, coming through the same formline as the former.
How to play it: Deific to win and box trifecta 3,6,9,10.
Race 2 3YO MAIDEN PLATE (1000m)
Improving 7. In My Dreams is well placed to break through here over the right sprint trip third-up against his own age. Edged out narrowly in heavy ground when resuming before only holding his spot in a deeper provincial maiden 16 days ago. Getting some weight relief, with blinkers going on, and back on wet ground are all keys.
Dangers: Naturally, provincial filly 4. Bambi Belle is a threat second-up off a break as long as the inside going is OK. Could only run into a place when heavily backed over the Wagga carnival, but bred to be more effective on wet tracks. The market will tell a story with debutant gelding 3. Wicked Testimony who stretched out to win the second of two trials, and is by prolific Group 1-winning wet track sire Press Statement. Another first starter 1. Coppabella Road by renowned wet track producer Zoustar has also trialled smartly; while at bigger odds, must respect 5. Bent As Hell who ran home OK two starts back in a handy maiden before disappointing at Quirindi, but likes the wet and drawn to get cover.
How to play it: In My Dreams to win.
Race 3 STAYERS CUP BENCHMARK 74 HCP (2300m)
Improving 7. Flying Deel looms as the one to beat down in weight fourth-up, with a stronger rider going on in what is now a weakened affair, with the early clear favourite coming out.
Dangers: Both 2. Natural Mystic third-up from a low draw; and 6. Torowoto back in grade deep into the prep; can fight out the quinella finish; while 8. Foxtrot Bravo heads the rest.
How to play it: Kingdom Of Logres to win.
Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1280m)
Like the first-up placement here for imported ex French-based mare 8. Junebug now in the Annabel Neasham stable. Hasn’t started since a couple of tidy European efforts late last year, and has trialled strongly, winning the latest over 1200m in soft ground, and bred to thrive in the wet. Will be much closer on the turn now with only seven going around.
Dangers: Resuming behind two trials, 10. She’s Got Teeth can run into the quinella spot; while 1. Divine Bene 25 days between runs is the best of the rest.
How to play it: Junebug to win.
Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m)
Lightly raced mare 10. Royal Radiance resumes in an ideal sprint on the limit weight. Won first-up last prep on a Soft 7 rating and is drawn to get to the middle of the track and produce a superior closing surge.
Dangers: Naturally consistent 1. Twilight Rock is right in the mix, dropping back to this shorter trip with gear changes fourth-up off a five-week break. Has placed 10 times from 15 starts and his only career victory so far came in heavy going. Stablemate to the top selection, 5. My Mate Laney defied a late betting drift to lead all the way on debut at Armidale, but this is deeper. Keep safe 8. Vandelight, who relished very heavy ground to easily claim her maiden fourth-up.
How to play it: Royal Radiance to win.
Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1450m)
Tough three-year-old 1. Lunartie is ready to claim a second career win fourth-up. Did his best work late in provincial company two starts back before holding his ground in a country BM 58. Reliable weight-carrier who is at his best on wet tracks and is better suited on this map, where he can get out wider into what will probably be better going and finish strong.
Dangers: Big watch on improving 4. Tartana, who was well backed before surging home to win a provincial Midway maiden first-up at this track in heavy ground. Hard to fathom why 6. Lease is still searching for only a second win ahead of his 37th start. Has placed in three of four runs this prep against tougher provincial opposition and looks very well treated at the weights after the jockey’s claim. The only concern is the inside going late in the day. Improving filly 8. Choice Witness ran home hard from the back when resuming at Grafton and is one of several each-way chances. Include in exotic bets 2. Externus, with the blinkers back on, and 5. Call Me Terry, three weeks after surging home late to win here on debut.
How to play it: Lunartie to win.
Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1450m)
Same set up and trip for the lower class improvers, and confident 8. Ahoy can claim her second win in three starts this prep. Was heavily backed fresh leading all the way in heavy ground before taking a trail at this track and running home okay behind a smart winner. Stays at the weight in a race with a little less depth, and the wetter the better.
Dangers: 2. Major Makeover can peak fourth-up, although unproven on real heavy ground; while at bigger odds 9. Allande is very fit and prefers rain-affected ground.
How to play it: Ahoy to win.
Race 8 BENCHMARK 74 HCP (1280m)
Tough as they come, 4. Reggie’s Boy hasn’t finished further back than fourth all prep, including a fighting heavy track win here two starts ago. Finds a weak race now for this level.
Dangers: Over the odds is 2. Olivia’s Spirit who finished hard to win a provincial BM 64 two starts back, and has a 33 per cent winning strike rate from 12 starts. Included in all exotics 6. Sting Jet off a 52-day freshening; and 8. Rebel’s Edge second-up with a jockey change.
How to play it: Reggie’s Boy to win.
Race 9 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1000m)
Competitive sprint to finish and it stacks up well on the map for underrated 8. Super Freds, deep into the prep. He has attacked the line impressively from well back in his last two and he gets a key new jockey and is drawn to settle back with cover behind a strong speed.
Dangers: Big watch on 6. Aquarter, who hasn’t started since Christmas Eve and had no official trials, but comes to hand quickly and likes wet ground. Keep safe 9. Courageous Queen, who is fourth-up and relishes this sort of going. Expecting a big second-up run from honest colt 1. Mr Trackside, while 10. Gerety, resuming behind two trials, is the best of the rest.
How to play it: Super Freds to win.
Best Bets: R5 (10) Royal Radiancer, R7 (8) Ahoy.
Best Value: R2 (7) In My Dreams.
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au